This year Russia has undertaken a major military buildup near Ukraine's border and in Crimea. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces. Its military-industrial complex has also ramped up the production of hardware from drones to aircraft. They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives.
Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says. BBC correspondents heard loud bangs in the capital Kyiv, as well as Kramatorsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. He urged Ukrainian soldiers in the combat zone to lay down their weapons and go home, but said clashes were inevitable and "only a question of time".
The Western defence official said that if Russia chose to carry out an attack now it could do so. But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks. Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply. Meanwhile, Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. This week, President Biden announced a "first tranche" of economic sanctions on two Russian banks with about $80 billion in assets and five Russian oligarchs and their families, and prohibited U.S. entities from purchasing Russian sovereign debt.
The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for international security – NATO and beyond
A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. "The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two," said Volodymyr Zelensky.
Despite warnings from the US and its Nato allies that any invasion by Russia of Ukraine would have "severe economic consequences," Moscow's military build-up on the border continues. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe. Russia’s key demand is that Ukraine and other countries be blocked from joining Nato – a concession the alliance has firmly ruled out.
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Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe. " https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-did-ukraine-look-like-before-the-war.html could simply be casualties of a military invasion," Rediker said. For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States.
Even if cyberattacks didn’t wipe out Netflix, wartime Britons would still face a life without luxuries. While the Channel has long been the country’s greatest defence, it makes it hard to import in times of war. As well as curbs on foreign consumer goods, there’d be runs on more basic products like medical kits, fuel canisters and masking tape to stop windows shattering during bombing raids. A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service. As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks.
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Russian forces had to withdraw from the vicinity of Kyiv and were beaten off in many other locations. Corruption, a disease at the heart of the Russian state, displayed itself on a grand scale in the conduct of the military operation. Russia’s human losses are enormous and, in spite of censorship, becoming known to the Russian public.
- President Biden said prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine that the not-yet-operational Nord Stream 2 pipeline would not move ahead in the event of an invasion.
- According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself.
- Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.
- Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support.
- At the end of the Cold War, most of the 100-strong network of nuclear bunkers were closed, along with around 1,500 underground posts for the Royal Observer Corps, a 10,000-strong volunteer force.
That's what's most likely today too, analysts say, so the effect on people with 401(k) accounts may be short term. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine. "Markets are fundamentally not prepared for a land war in Europe in the 21st century," Rediker said. Ukrainian economic output and industry will likely be significantly disrupted. The country is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors.
- If Russia were to invade Ukraine, it would likely employ massive cyber and electronic warfare tools and long-range PGMs.
- Russia's long-time leader was also desperate to prevent Ukraine from entering Nato's orbit, but his attempt to blame the Western defensive alliance for the war is false.
- Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.
- While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank.
Such brinkmanship has contributed to the return of nuclear arms into the power competition on a global stage. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure.
Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. The Covid lockdown, which saw fights breaking out in queues at supermarkets and garages, was a glimpse of how trouble can spark during times of nationwide panic. There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite. Military kit also needs boots on the ground to operate it – hence Sir Patrick’s call for a “Citizen Army” to boost the regular Armed Forces. Whether people would be flocking into recruitment offices is open to question.
In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. After an uneasy peace with Ukraine, Moscow has sent forces into the Baltics, clashing with British troops based there to protect Nato’s eastern flank. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Ukraine, with substantial help from the United States and NATO, is prepared to deter and defend against attack.
- A long-held taboo that made an actual application of nuclear force unthinkable has been verbally discarded.
- While Ukrainians may be unable to defeat a large-scale invasion, they could inflict high casualties, a sensitive issue in Russia.
- US forces will not get directly involved now, but military assistance will be swiftly provided by some Nato states, including lethal aid, intelligence-sharing and weapons such as man-portable missiles (as in Afghanistan).
- This week, President Biden announced a "first tranche" of economic sanctions on two Russian banks with about $80 billion in assets and five Russian oligarchs and their families, and prohibited U.S. entities from purchasing Russian sovereign debt.
- But the official noted there had been a combination of sharp bellicose rhetoric from Moscow, accusations of being provoked by Ukraine and Nato, a lack of transparency, and a worrying track record, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
- Kyiv does not expect Westerners to fight its battles, but it does seek military support.
The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. And the future of the EU's economic aid is seemingly dependent on Hungary's incongruous stance. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. The Guardian’s Moscow correspondent, Andrew Roth, walks Michael Safi through some of the possible outcomes should the Russian military invade Ukraine, and explains what kinds of diplomatic off-ramps might be available to tamp down the crisis. “Covid showed our ugly side, with people getting upset when all they were being asked to do was sit on the sofa at home,” said the former TA soldier.