"If he manages to kill Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government with a nuclear weapon, that may be a way for him to declare victory and then possibly withdraw." But they're not easy to use, especially against Ukrainians operating in small, widely dispersed forces. "[But] there is a real risk that Putin might look to nuclear use to actually stave off the crisis that he's facing in Ukraine. "[Putin] is now facing a precarious domestic situation, with no expectation of upcoming military successes for Russia on the battlefield," Dr Genauer said.
Ukrainian forces have adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictate; a senior army general warned last week that front-line Ukrainian troops face artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations because of a shortfall of foreign assistance. Putin could order Russian troops to enter separatist-held areas in the east in a mostly symbolic show of force. Western governments and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces and Russian-armed proxies are already on the ground. By rolling into separatist-controlled areas in an explicit way, Russia could keep tensions with Kyiv high without having to fire a shot, Breedlove and some experts said. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-the-uk-interested-in-ukraine.html of Ukraine's combat forces are deployed along a "contact line" in the eastern Donbass region, where they are facing off against separatists backed by Moscow. If the Kremlin rapidly moved armored units to the west of the front line, it could cut off and trap much of Ukraine's ground troops without having to occupy major cities, experts said.
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Small countries, such as Moldova and Georgia, but also Moscow’s formal allies such as Kazakhstan, may fear becoming Putin’s next target. The Kremlin has not made any attempt to assuage these fears, but has instead amplified them via direct menaces, propaganda and intimidation levers. Latest examples include curtailing gas supplies for political reasons, violating the airspace of a NATO country, threatening Lithuania, and using economic blackmail against Collective Security Treaty Organization member, Kazakhstan. According to its own terminology, Putin’s regime has chosen confrontation with the “collective West”, irrespective of the costs for Russia itself.
Power grids, hospitals and local governments could all be targets, she said. But if the conflict causes long-lasting disruption of energy markets and other exports, investors could rethink that conventional wisdom. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine. "The premise of sanctions is to hurt the other guy more than you hurt your own interests. But that does not mean there will not be some collateral damage," said Doug Rediker, a partner at International Capital Strategies. If there were Ukrainian soldiers on board the transport plane, then Russia will eventually have to provide the proof. We don't know how much more officials here in Kyiv may already know and not be saying.
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Meanwhile in the Middle East, UK and US forces have launched airstrikes on Yemen in response to the Iranian-backed Houthis' attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million. They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv's forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives.
- "There are some signals that the Americans have threatened Russia that if they use a nuclear weapon, the US would enter the conflict directly and attack Russian forces in Ukraine and I think that that's the most likely scenario," Professor Fruehling said.
- A senior Russian lawmaker said Ukrainian military intelligence had been given a 15-minute warning before a Russian military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war entered an area where it was shot down on Wednesday.
- As long as Russia's potential invasion force remains massed on the borders then even the bustling Ukrainian capital Kyiv, and other cities, will not be safe from attack.
- Ukraine’s ability to contain Russian aggression will shape the security environment for years to come.
- "There are no really good choices. A direct attack on Iran would be one way but that could also open Pandora's box. And we've already seen how little the retaliatory strikes on the Houthis in Yemen have achieved.
- It did not specifically reference the aircraft which crashed earlier Wednesday, which Russia said was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and nine Russians.
Ukrainians may have the tactical advantage and the spirit to persevere, but structural factors weigh in Russia’s favor. In a Politico essay, Graham and scholar Rajan Menon proposed a framework for a negotiated outcome that begins with confidence-building measures between the US and Russia, rebuilding arms control treaties. The US and NATO would pledge that neither Ukraine nor Georgia will join NATO in the next several years or decades, though the possibility may be open someday. Russian academic Alexander Dynkin circulated a similar idea in the lead-up to the war.
Long war
President Putin warned in December that the war "could be a lengthy process", but then added later that Russia's goal was "not to spin the flywheel of military conflict", but to end it. A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. If the Ukrainians keep on fighting, and a guerrilla war breaks out, then all of that will become impossible to carry forward.
- But we don't know if there are foreigners there, covertly working with the Ukrainian army, particularly in light of the calls from Ukraine's president for foreigners to go and help.
- The technical condition is good, a representative of the emergency services told RIA Novosti.
- Professor Fruehling said Mr Putin could use nuclear weapons to end the conflict in one of two ways — either to stop the momentum of the Ukrainian forces, or trigger a reaction by the US, UK and France in order to justify a withdrawal that saves face at home.