"But if Central/Eastern Europe felt abandoned by those powers, it's not hard to imagine a Polish or even a Ukrainian nuclear programme." "The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent," Mr OBrien says. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". US President Joe Biden said Mr Putin had "chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering". Meanwhile Russia's currency, the rouble, fell to an all-time low against the dollar and the euro. "People were out on the streets last night in this city - they were waving the Ukrainian flag. They said this was their land. They were going nowhere," she reported.
- "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR.
- Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says.
- The United States has estimated as many as 50,000 civilian casualties.
- The recognition of the territories and occupation by Russian forces is also an act of aggression but it is not the nightmare scenario.
- At the centre of the massive offensive is Ukraine's capital Kyiv - home to three million people, with many fleeing the city.
Turkey, a country with the second largest standing army among NATO members, brokered a deal on July 14 with Russia, Ukraine, and the U.N. To resume Ukrainian grain exports that had been blocked by Moscow. NATO members have sent billions of dollars of military aid to Ukraine, including crucial weaponry, without which the country would’ve been defeated “in two or three weeks,” says Cancian. Fighting is brutal on the frontlines—last month, Zelensky said that Ukraine was losing up to 200 troops a day. Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says.
Russia-Ukraine crisis: How likely is it to escalate into broader war?
"No one thinks the UK-led Battle Group [in Estonia] by itself would deter the second most powerful nuclear country in the world," he says. "This is a tripwire that would trigger the might of all Nato, including the US, UK and France." After eight years of fighting a Russian-backed breakaway insurgency in the east of their country they are now watching it being shelled, bombed and rocketed by their giant nuclear-armed neighbour. Eastern European countries, who fear they may be next in Putin's sights, are watching nervously for any Russian manoeuvres close to their borders.
And even though the U.S. imports relatively little oil from Russia, oil prices are set by the global market, meaning local prices could rise anyway. For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States.
Russia attacks Ukraine: More coverage
In fact, when the US and Britain watched in dismay as Russia built up a force capable of invading Ukraine, they swiftly pulled out their small number of military trainers and advisers. As bad as the situation on the Russia-Ukraine border is right now, it does not currently involve a direct military confrontation between Nato and Russia. Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. Mr Zelenskyy has called for public officials to disclose their incomes to increase transparency and eliminate corruption as Ukraine tries to meet the stringent requirements for its bid to join the European Union. Unnamed Indian government sources have suggested India wants to distance itself from Russia, according to Reuters news agency. Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy.
- Now, whether Iran asked Putin to do this, I honestly can’t say, but we can all see this deepening relationship between Russia and Iran.
- It also intervened in Syria to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
- According to Ukrainian prosecutor general Iryna Venediktova, some 21,000 alleged war crimes are being investigated, with between 200 to 300 new reports arriving every day.
- And we gave assurances along with the United Kingdom, that Ukraine would not end up in the situation that it is in now.
President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 saw the return of major war to the European continent. The course of the conflict in 2023 marked the fact that industrial-age warfare had returned too. Much as the United States retained the diplomatic properties of the three Baltic states in Washington, D.C., after they had been annexed by the Soviet Union during World War II, the West can put itself on the side of decency and dignity in this conflict.
What could war look like?
We pushed Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons that it had inherited from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. And we gave assurances along with the United Kingdom, that Ukraine would not end up in the situation that it is in now. We guaranteed its territorial integrity and sovereignty and independence and also assured Ukraine that we would step up to help. This opens up a whole can of worms related first to the moral jeopardy of this, that we obviously don’t stick to our word.
