President Biden, for example, has repeatedly stated that there will be no American troops fighting in Ukraine. It's hard to say whether or not it is not "going according to plan" because no one knows what President's Putin plan is. But there've been reports of Russian convoys running out of fuel, Russian soldiers losing the will to fight, and Ukrainians fighting back - both soldiers and civilians, some armed only with the force of patriotism. Russia claims Donetsk in eastern Ukraine as its own territory, having unilaterally annexed the region in late 2022.
For as long as it lasts, Russia’s presence in Ukraine will be perceived by Ukraine’s neighbors as provocative and unacceptable and, for some, as a threat to their own security. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-ukraine-wanting-to-join-the-eu.html changed the course of the war, saving Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from impending defeat, and then translated military force into diplomatic leverage. Instead, Moscow has amassed greater regional clout, from Israel to Libya, and retained a loyal partner in Assad for Russia’s power projection. In Syria, what the Obama administration failed to anticipate was the possibility that Russia’s intervention would succeed. "Much of this is required to fight the war in Ukraine, but the Russians, ever adaptive, are using the crucible of war to reform, restructure and re-arm their forces.
EU to allow wider measures to control Ukraine grain imports
They are trying to grind down the Ukrainian people’s morale, and unfortunately, that includes the bodies of Ukrainians,” Moller said. This toll is expected to climb, especially as the Russian offensive intensifies around Ukrainian cities, where shelling and strikes have hit civilian targets, and as efforts at high-level Ukraine-Russia negotiations have so far failed. All of this is happening as Russian forces appear to be preparing to lay siege to Kyiv. That has not stopped a catastrophe from unfolding within Ukraine, even as it has prompted Western allies to effectively wage economic warfare against Moscow with unprecedented sanctions. Special funding assistance will be required for long-term training and the modernisation of Ukrainian forces, de facto bringing them to NATO standards.
The Russian president has recognised the independence of two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine. The territories have been armed, financed and politically controlled by Russia since 2014. However, even if Ukrainian troops are unable to repel a large-scale invasion, defence analysts believe Moscow would then find itself in a costly and prolonged guerrilla war that could in the long run turn victory into defeat.
President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. Ukraine's army said Wednesday that it would continue to "control the airspace" to reduce the threat of missiles, "including in the Belgorod-Kharkiv direction," after a Russian military transport plane crashed in the Russian border region of Belgorod.
The Next Global War
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said six people had been killed in the latest strikes, which targeted Kyiv, Kharkiv and other areas of Ukraine, and 73 people had been injured, some seriously. The Kremlin says everything is done to ensure the Russian military has the equipment it needs to be successful in what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine. It has rejected as false various corruption allegations, and shrugged off the video. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that "massive" Russian strikes show the need to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses.
- Any full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be over in a matter of a few days.
- Such a move is well within Russia's naval capabilities, and it could bring Ukraine's economy to its knees, the country's former defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk warned in June.
- The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine.
- Moscow accuses Kyiv of downing the Ilyushin Il-76 plane in Russia's Belgorod region, killing all 74 people on board, including 65 captured Ukrainian soldiers en route to be swapped for Russian POWs.
- His comments came during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group as it held its 18th meeting virtually.
Experts said there are still some economic penalties left in the toolbox, but what’s already in place is massively damaging to the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is expected to dramatically shrink; its stock market remains closed. And even if these sanctions are targeted toward Russia’s ability to make war, the damage done to the Russian economic system will inevitably trickle down to ordinary Russians. These penalties are widespread — besides Europe, partners like South Korea and Japan have joined in. Even neutral countries like Switzerland have imposed sanctions (though there are loopholes.) Big Tech companies, cultural institutions, and international corporations, from Mastercard to McDonald’s, are pulling out of the country. The US has targeted numerous Russian banks, including two of Russia’s biggest, Sberbank and VTB.
Refugees will flee in multiple directions, quite possibly in the millions. And those parts of the Ukrainian military that are not directly defeated will continue fighting, echoing the partisan warfare that tore apart this whole region of Europe during and after World War II. Cold War analogies will not be helpful in a world with a Russianized Ukraine. The Cold War border in Europe had its flash points, but it was stabilized in a mutually acceptable fashion in the Helsinki Final Act of 1975. By contrast, Russian suzerainty over Ukraine would open a vast zone of destabilization and insecurity from Estonia to Poland to Romania to Turkey.
Kyiv was initially silent as details of the plane crash emerged Wednesday morning. Later, Ukraine's intelligence agency confirmed that a prisoner exchange had been scheduled but did not take place. Explosions thundered in the dim light before dawn, minutes after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia cynically declared the start of a “special military operation” to “demilitarize” Ukraine but not occupy the country. His announcement came as the United Nations Security Council held an emergency meeting, stunning ambassadors who had to deliver impromptu reactions to the rapidly changing events.
It is notable that U.S.-Russian cooperation on malicious cyber-activities continues even during the current tensions. The necessity of maintaining rigorous arms control agreements will be even greater after a Ukraine war and the sanctions regime that follows it. The shock of a big military move by Russia will likewise raise questions in Ankara. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey has been enjoying the venerable Cold War game of playing off the superpowers.
- More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that has occurred since 2014.
- There are concerns that, given Trump's previous good relations with Moscow and "America First" policy, aid for Ukraine could be shelved rapidly.
- A massive invasion and occupation — what Hodges, the retired Army general, calls "the big red arrow" across Ukraine — is less likely, and it's not clear that Russia has sufficient forces to hold that much territory, several experts said.
- While the world's attention has focused on Russia's troop buildup on its land border with Ukraine, Moscow also has expanded its naval power near Ukraine's coast, including amphibious forces and naval infantry, experts said.
- However, cheap Ukrainian grain exports have sparked protests by governments, farmers and truckers in neighbouring countries such as Poland and Hungary.
- The US and the EU also cut several Russian banks off from SWIFT, the global messaging system that facilitates foreign transactions.
In other words - any full-scale invasion could be over in a matter of a few days. "The expectation is that Russia could take Ukraine without much of a fight," said a Western source, referring to any initial assault. A nuclear attack would completely destroy its target area and trigger a toxic radioactive fallout.
- Some evacuees from this region told BBC colleagues of their happiness that Russia recognised Donetsk and Luhansk.
- As a NATO member, it will not benefit from the militarization of the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean.
- His assertion contradicted statements by Ukrainian military intelligence that Russia had not informed it about the flight arrangements.
- We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.
- Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said his country was preparing for an "influx of refugees" from Ukraine.
"We have seen Russia use tactics of decimating cities and civilian infrastructure in past conflicts in Chechnya and as part of Russia's military support for President Assad in Syria," Dr Genauer said. Stephan Fruehling, a nuclear weapons and NATO expert from the Australian National University, said throughout history nuclear powers looked for an alternative to using nuclear weapons, but the crisis in Ukraine was different. It was meant to be a swift so-called special military operation — Russian troops were to roll into Kyiv and Ukraine's government were to capitulate.