This would put the "largest and most combat-effective friendly military on the European continent" at the forefront of NATO's defence, according to the thinktank. Best of all, the ISW says, would be supporting Ukraine to victory and then helping it rebuild. The ISW argues NATO's military potential is much greater than that of Russia - even if it fully absorbs Ukraine and Belarus.
The US and Russia have drawn firm red lines that help explain what’s at stake. Russia presented the US with a list of demands, some of which were nonstarters for the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Putin demanded that NATO stop its eastward expansion and deny membership to Ukraine, and that NATO roll back troop deployment in countries that had joined after 1997, which would turn back the clock decades on Europe’s security and geopolitical alignment. But Ukraine is also a larger stage for Russia to try to reassert its influence in Europe and the world, and for Putin to cement his legacy. Russia’s invasion has the potential to set up a clash of nuclear world powers.
Winter fast approaching and the global economic strain of the war will both add to the pressures on Ukrainian forces, he adds. "If Western support continues, if the Russians are still struggling to recruit troops, and if Ukraine can successfully switch from defence to attack." Over the past six months, Russia has gone from a Blitzkrieg-style offensive targeting Kyiv to focusing on the eastern Donbas and southern cities of Mariupol and Kherson. But a Ukrainian victory is dependent on numerous key factors, including how long the West is prepared to provide support and whether troops can make enough gains before winter sets in.
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Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said. One way to do that is with an armistice, a temporary agreement to cease military operations, but one that does not conclude the war decisively. Since the counteroffensive was launched in June, only a handful of villages have been recaptured.
Ukraine's armed forces have been fighting against the Russian military for a year now, and countries around the the world have been supporting Ukraine by supplying weapons and armed vehicles, such as tanks, to defend themselves. Since 2014, Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine's armed forces have been fighting a war in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in which more than 14,000 people have died. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-a-vacuum-bomb-ukraine.html has denied attacking Ukrainian cities - saying it was targeting military infrastructure, air defence and air forces with "high-precision weapons".
What has been the impact of the Ukraine war on the rest of the world?
The White House said Mr Biden and Mr Putin would discuss the crisis by phone on Saturday. Some 40 villages sit in between the Ukrainian army's area of control and the breakaway territories controlled by Russian-backed militias. Many analysts had previously believed that any invasion was unlikely to start until after the Winter Olympics in China end on February 20. The White House said it still didn't know if Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade, but said Mr Putin has assembled all the elements to do so quickly and told Americans in Ukraine to leave within the next 48 hours. "Politically, they're all starting to waver and will continue to do so as sanctions bite. "But the Western world is on the verge of asking itself whether we want to take up industrial warfare - and arm Ukraine to a level as if we were fighting ourselves."
Professor Clarke says that for the UK and the US it's not a question of political will, but one of sheer capacity. "There's some flexibility on what that victory is, because he controls the media, he can come up with any old story and it won't really matter if it's believable or not." Despite years of sanction-proofing, the longer the war, the worse the impact will be on the Russian economy. "Even cutting every possible corner, training new people up will take a minimum of four or five months.
He says he is doing it because the break up of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century for the Russian people. And he has written extensively about how Russians and Ukrainians are one people. The danger, however, with sanctions is they push Moscow further away from the West and towards the East, meaning Mr Putin may develop yet closer relations with Beijing.
- More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels.
- “It’s the time when you’re meant to be with your family and this is going to be the second year without him, unless there is a miracle.
- Ultimately, it comes down to the price the populations in the United States and Europe are prepared to pay,” said Richard Connolly, a lecturer in political economy at the Centre for Russian and East European Studies at the University of Birmingham.
- "Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. And as we said before, we're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time," Mr Blinken said.
A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service. As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks. Putin has used the NATO line to try to convince an international audience who might already have strong misgivings about the Western military alliance, Hall said. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl.
- Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians “were one people — a single whole,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a “wall” between the two.
- Many analysts had previously believed that any invasion was unlikely to start until after the Winter Olympics in China end on February 20.
- Ukrainian military intelligence said it did not have “reliable and comprehensive” information about who or what was onboard the Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft, which was filmed crashing and exploding in a fireball on Wednesday afternoon.
- Right now, such scenarios tend to exercise only the minds of Ministry of Defence war-gamers and military thriller writers.
- But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Many are now trying to escape the country, with UN estimates suggesting over 100,000 people have already fled from their homes. President Putin this month recognised the two regions held by the Russian-backed separatists as independent states and ordered Russian troops there, tearing up a peace deal. Much of the fighting appears to be centred around the east of the country. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. The Russian offensive was preceded by artillery fire and there were injuries to border guards, the DPSU said. Tanks and troops have poured into Ukraine at points along its eastern, southern and northern borders, Ukraine says.
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- Ukraine has declared martial law - which means the military takes control temporarily.
- Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables."
- The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington.
Giving in to Putin’s demands would hand the Kremlin veto power over NATO’s decision-making, and through it, the continent’s security. On February 15, Russia had said it planned “to partially pull back troops,” a possible signal that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be willing to deescalate. The US alleged Putin has in fact added more troops since that pronouncement, and on Friday US President Joe Biden told reporters that he’s “convinced” that Russia had decided to invade Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. “We believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital Kyiv,” Biden said. Russia has built up tens of thousands of troops along the Ukrainian border, an act of aggression that could spiral into the largest military conflict on European soil in decades.
- But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change.
- The official, who was not authorised to speak publicly and did so only on condition of anonymity, would not say how definitive the intelligence was.
- President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members.
- Lithuania's prime minister, for example, told Insider in February that her country joined NATO "because of Putin."
- A few months into office, the Biden administration spoke about a “stable, predictable” relationship with Russia.
That, though, is partly because Ukraine had already learnt from previous Russian cyberattacks over the past decade. Another potential threat could come from anti-war politicians, whom Kremlin propagandists might seek to incite. However, don’t expect to see Jeremy Corbyn being carted off straight away.
One is to take back Kupiansk, the gateway to Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv. Another is to capture the salient town of Avdiivka, not far from the occupied regional capital of Donetsk. In the process it has lost spectacular numbers of troops, tanks and equipment.