The Ukraine conflict prompted a further revisiting of the 2021 ‘integrated review’ into foreign, security, defence and development policy. In line with the spirit of that pre-Russian invasion period, the original document was titled “Global Britain in a competitive age”. But beyond the Johnsonian rhetoric the 2021 document was quite clear-sighted about UK interests.
Over the Christmas period, Russia launched hundreds of missile and drone strikes across cities in Ukraine including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Lviv. This culminated on 29 December, when Russian unleashed its largest aerial assault against Ukraine since the war began. It killed at least 41 civilians, including a 15-year-old boy, wounded hundreds, and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital. It is regrettable - and sadly predictable - that we must gather today to condemn Russia’s latest wave of aerial attacks against the Ukrainian people.
Ukraine crisis: What’s at stake for the UK?
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, this month repeated that the UK wants to increase defence spending from 2.1% of GDP to 2.5% in the future. With an election looming, the military is hoping politicians make further pledges over defence spending. Labour has avoided making any firm spending commitments, but has criticised cuts to the size of the army and promised to launch a defence review if elected. In his speech, Sanders said the cold war peace dividend was over, noting that “over the last 30 years, the army has been halved in size; in the last 12 years, we’ve absorbed a 28% reduction”. Recruitment remained a challenge, he said, although applications to join were “the highest in six years”.
- Finland, Nato's newest member and a country which has an 800-mile border with Russia, has wider conscription.
- Satellite imagery suggests Russia is sending troops towards its border with Ukraine.
- Conscription requires young men and women to serve for a limited time in uniform.
- Mr Johnson said the UK and its allies would agree a "massive package of economic sanctions" in a bid to "hobble" the Russian economy, warning that the West would need to cease its dependence on Russian oil and gas.
Forces are on standby in eastern Europe, and Nato is working with Ukraine to modernise its forces and protect it against cyber attacks. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-is-china-saying-about-ukraine.html did confirm that 1,000 more troops would be put on alert in the UK if Russia were to invade although Downing Street is likely to follow the lead set by Nato. Around 350 Royal Marines from 45 Commando were sent to Poland this week – taking the total numbers of military personnel there up to 500 – as the two countries continue to work together to try and de-escalate the tensions around Ukraine. He said he was launching a “special military operation” in the east of the country. Many analysts say Beijing in particular is looking on as it formulates its own plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over.
Opposition to Russia's demands
That means extremely difficult choices for a Treasury gearing up for retrenchment and conscious that protecting military budgets means cuts would fall even more heavily on public services, themselves in desperate need of more investment. As prime minister Boris Johnson promised to increase defence spending from an existing 2% to 2.5% of GDP; his successor Liz Truss went further by committing to 3%. The new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is tasked with plotting the UK’s course out of the crisis. Even with prices falling faster than expected, next winter still looks challenging – and energy is likely to remain front and centre of the political agenda well beyond that. Instead it has strengthened political consensus that domestic renewables offer the cheapest and most secure form of energy.
- Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a "catastrophe for our continent", Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said.
- The defence alliance, which counts the UK, US and many European countries as members, has also condemned Belarus for "enabling" the attack.
- It could even send troops to the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
- This could see states like Poland and the Baltics decide to aid Ukraine on their own, which "might leave NATO's eastern front vulnerable and cause a crisis within the EU and European NATO".
This shift in approach to resourcing Russia and Ukraine is noticeable, and the UK can consider its response to the war so far a diplomatic success. As cars queued on Ukraine's border with Moldova, the country's pro-EU president, Maia Sandu said she was declaring a state of emergency and was prepared to give help to tens of thousands of Ukrainians. "This renewed attack is a grave violation of international law, including the UN Charter," Nato said.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) also distanced itself from the speech, which was released by the British army on behalf of the senior general, who is due to leave in the summer, having missed out on becoming head of the armed forces three years ago. Downing Street has dismissed a warning from the head of the British army that the UK public must be prepared to take up arms in a war against Vladimir Putin’s Russia because today’s professional military is too small. “Preparations for the repatriation had been underway for a long time,” Ukraine’s coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war said in a statement. Russian forces launched eight rocket strikes on civilian infrastructure in the Donetsk and the Kherson oblasts, the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said in its morning briefing. The Netherlands has joined the IT coalition to aid Ukraine in its war efforts, Ukraine’s defence ministry said today. However, Russian forces have suffered heavy personnel and armoured vehicle losses, frequently caused by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicle munitions.
- On Sunday, the UK Foreign Office accused Mr Putin of planning to install a pro-Moscow figure to lead Ukraine's government, naming former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a possible candidate.
- But while by far the most significant consequences of the invasion over the past year have clearly been for the people of the Ukraine (and Russia), the advent of war in mainland Europe has also had consequences for UK government.
- It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders.
- These took place far away from the front lines of Russia’s war, in civilian populated areas.
The Times’ policy editor Oliver Wright said that Britons should be ready for “significant rises in petrol and gas prices” after “international oil prices surged by nearly $6 per barrel to more than $100, levels not seen since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea”. The foreign secretary also warned last week that harsh UK sanctions could have far-reaching consequences. Talk of wider war in Europe and the potential need for mass mobilisation or a "citizen army" may sound alarming. But the head of the British Army Gen Sir Patrick Sanders is not alone in issuing a national call to prepare for a major conflict on European soil. A new £2.5bn military aid package from the UK has been welcomed here, with £200m of that earmarked specifically for drones. But President Volodymyr Zelensky has also pledged to make a million of them within the borders of Ukraine.
- The Russian president has intensified a crackdown on opposition since the start of his invasion of Ukraine, and this has ramped up further as the elections have approached.
- As cars queued on Ukraine's border with Moldova, the country's pro-EU president, Maia Sandu said she was declaring a state of emergency and was prepared to give help to tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
- But beyond the Johnsonian rhetoric the 2021 document was quite clear-sighted about UK interests.
- Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected".
- He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.
- President Putin recognises the independence of the two Russian-backed separatists areas in eastern Ukraine and says troops will be sent to support them.
These took place far away from the front lines of Russia’s war, in civilian populated areas. The intensity, regularity and indiscriminate nature of Russia’s attacks may violate international humanitarian law, is extremely concerning and must stop. According to reports, Russian missiles on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least 18 people and injured over one hundred.
- Even though an attack of some kind has been expected for several months there is still a widespread sense of shock about what has happened around the world.
- This is partly due to the relatively large share of services in UK output and relatively large shares of energy-intensive manufacturing in some other countries (Chart C).
- At the same time, Trump looks set to sweep the Republican nomination after primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
- The term “surety” is used by the Pentagon to refer to the need to keep nuclear weapons safe when they are not being used.
- A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military.
- Russian forces seized control of Crimea before the territory voted to join Russia in a referendum the West and Ukraine deemed illegal.
It also wants Nato to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries. It is called self-determination, and perhaps the most important aspect of this principle is that borders cannot be changed by invading armies.
