The current situation also suggests a prolonged fight, given the significant loss of territory Ukraine has suffered in recent weeks in the east – half of the Donetsk region and almost all of the Luhansk region – alongside Russia’s early gains in the south. Some analysts say Kyiv would lack leverage if it entered peace negotiations now, with the result likely being “peace” as dictated exclusively by Moscow. “After failing to enter Kyiv and the strategic redeployment of the Russian forces and putting the centre of gravity to eastern Ukraine, the Russians generals decided to go slowly but firmly,” Konstantinos Loukopoulos, a former Greek and NATO lieutenant-general, told Al Jazeera. After shifting its focus to Ukraine’s east, Russia has captured nearly all of the Luhansk province and is likely to continue its efforts until it takes the rest of the Donetsk province – together, these two areas make up the Donbas region. On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there was “no use in setting an end date” to what Russia calls “special military operation in Ukraine”, adding that its objective to “liberate” Donbas had not changed. So a more likely end point here is not a negotiated peace, but rather a conflict that consolidates around lines of control.
“The ultimate end to this is the Ukrainians take back as much pre-Feb. 24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.
Russia's at war with Ukraine. Here's how we got here
It was once reluctant but now provides Ukraine with Stinger and IRIS-T low-altitude anti-air missiles, HIMARS rocket artillery, and Patriot high-altitude air defenses. The United States and Germany have said they will supply infantry fighting vehicles. Last week, Ukraine ordered its forces to withdraw from the key city of Severodonetsk, which had been the target of an intense Russian offensive for weeks. While https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-doesnt-russia-want-ukraine-in-nato.html are pushing to also seize the nearby city of Lysychansk, Russia on Thursday announced the withdrawal of its troops from the strategically important Snake Island.
There were in fact already obvious tensions in the Russian high command. General Sergei Surovikin, in overall charge of the Russian forces, was tough and competent. But he was demoted in January, presumably because he was too defence-minded. Instead Commander-in-Chief Valery Gerasimov took over direct responsibility for the Russian campaign.
When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions.
In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Maybe it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street. The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Equally, Ukraine’s dependence on their weapons gives Western powers a say in how Kyiv plots its strategy.
- Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
- Meanwhile, the Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.
- Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power.
- A possible escalation could involve Russian forces turning the tables on the battlefield and making a push for the south of Ukraine, Professor Clarke said.
- But Peskov told Bloomberg News, "President Putin has stated numerous times that Russia was, is and will continue to be open for negotiations on Ukraine."
It's possible today's situation with Russia might make such a policy more politically palatable if the U.S. attempted it again, though I can't find any serious proposal in the government to do just that. After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. There seems to be some degree of sensitivity in Ukraine to Russia's claims it's waging a proxy war with the West over Ukraine. A lot of the Ukrainians I've talked to, while they appreciate the Western weapons supplies, say this is their war to fight. Apart from a few exceptions, almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory.
What if Russia's Army Fails in Ukraine?
Ask any analyst or observer how they think the war in Ukraine will play out, and they'll tell you their guess is only as good as the next offensive. Under the cover of darkness on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin acted on a long-held ambition, rolling his tanks across the border and disrupting the lives of 44 million people. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration. This means that the willingness of the general population to suffer in the face of high costs is of the utmost importance.
The US has sent billions in crucial weaponry to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks. But with Republicans poised to take control of Congress, there may be significant implications for the war. Analysts say its forces also require more troops and would need to withstand an expected Russian onslaught in spring, between March and May. While the West believes it will be up to Ukraine to decide its future, there is no denying the outcome of the war will have far-reaching consequences for Europe and the rest of the world. Vlada Chernykh, Ajuna Morozova and Alina Voronchikhina decided to join the volunteer Khartia Battalion, fighting for their city and their country. Ukrainians woke up to the sound of panicked texts and calls, and air raid sirens blaring over the capital, the first signs their fragile peace with Russia was broken.
In his office, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, told the BBC that "Prigozhin is not the most senior. They might become the new political elite". The Ukrainians have fought a clever media war, and they are remarkably consistent in the messages that they deliver to their own people and their Western allies, as well as their enemies in Moscow. Ukraine will do all it can to keep pressure on the Russians there to make it untenable for the Russian navy in Sevastopol, the handful of air force bases there and their logistics base at Dzankoy.
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- While its forces are pushing to also seize the nearby city of Lysychansk, Russia on Thursday announced the withdrawal of its troops from the strategically important Snake Island.
- Any progress towards talks would likely start with a ceasefire or a similar type of temporary arrangement that would enable both sides to suspend fighting, the analysts suggest.
- "My sense is that even without outside support, the Ukrainians will continue to fight," she told Newsweek.