Crowdfunding military equipment for Ukraine – already successful in Lithuania – shows that the general international public is sympathetic and wants to play its part in this process. To help Kyiv to counterbalance Russia’s size advantages and scorched earth tactics, Allies should consider more military exercises to show NATO’s readiness and strength. Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain. Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine .
Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine. The United States and its allies may further reinforce NATO's eastern flank with major ground and air units. They might increase stocks of PGMs, such as the new medium-range ballistic Precision Strike Missile. Given Russia's potential mass use of long-range PGMs, NATO may have to improve its aerospace defenses.
Russia could be on the brink of invading Ukraine. Here's what might happen next
A document signed by Putin on Monday also allows him to establish military bases or place missiles in the territories. The Russian president has recognised the independence of two Russian-controlled territories in east Ukraine. The territories have been armed, financed and politically controlled by Russia since 2014.
And nearly five months in, there’s no end in sight to the brutal conflict. Prior to the talks, Ukraine officials shared that Russia had dropped preconditions to any peace deal. However, Ukraine's foreign minister Dymtro Kuleba added that the Russian president's announcement that nuclear weapons were now on high alert was a move to put pressure on the country during negotiations.
Why is Russia invading Ukraine - and will there be a war?
NATO officials, who represent 30 nations in Europe and North America, have flatly rejected Putin's demands. Russia has said it will take what it calls "military-technical" measures to protect its security. Moscow’s move against Ukraine, once a member of the Soviet Union, is sure to increase fears over the security of other former Soviet countries in Eastern Europe.
- Washington has suggested that force could rise to 175,000 by the end of January.
- But he said Russian forces massed on the border were still missing some crucial elements - such as full logistical support, ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks.
- Superior US Himars missiles helped turn the course of the war and German Leopard 2 tanks are promised, even if Western fighter jets are not.
- Amid the fighting, there have been widespread reports of war crimes and attacks on civilians by Russian forces in Ukraine.
The focus of increased assistance might be defensive weapons that can be rapidly absorbed by Ukraine's armed forces. They could help deny Moscow the capacity to conduct a large-scale heavy fire power campaign to rapidly occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River and seize key cities, such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa. Russia has gathered up to 190,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and is positioned to launch an attack that could threaten the capital, Kyiv, and sweep across much of the country. An offensive of that size has not been seen in Europe since the second world war.
After a series of humiliating retreats, his initial invasion plan has clearly failed, but Russia's war is far from over. It is a priority for CBC to create products that are accessible to all in Canada including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges. Ottawa says Canadian troops have helped to train 12,500 Ukrainian soldiers since 2015. The outcome of an invasion would depend on the size of Russia's invading force and its tactics.
- Canada has about 200 soldiers stationed in Ukraine to assist the local military.
- Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had asked for up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear "more arguments" to support the sensitive and costly proposal.
- The United States and NATO allies worry that Russia may be planning an invasion.
- Compared to Cold War practice, today, Kremlin propagandists and officials engage in highly irresponsible rhetoric advocating for the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, and possibly even against NATO states.
Russia will be losing the same number of troops, if not more, Brookings’ Stent says. Despite such heavy losses, analysts predict that the war could go on for years. “Both sides are now gearing [up] for a long war—recruiting, training, finding replacements—and moving from what you might call the sprint phase to a marathon phase,” Cancian says.
- Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.
- Canada and its allies have threatened to impose a series of punishing economic sanctions on Russia if it invades.
- We saw some scenes of celebration in areas of eastern Ukraine which have been controlled by Russian-backed separatists since 2014.
- But the president has imposed martial law across the country, saying that Ukraine was "ready for everything".
Nato member states have increasingly sent Ukraine air defence systems to protect its cities, as well as missile systems, artillery and drones that helped turn the tide against Russia's invasion. A year into the war, he talks of Russia fighting to defend its "historical frontiers" and "rebuilding peaceful life in Donbas and Novorossiya", spelling out that Ukraine's southern territories are part of his project, just as much as the east. Even now, Russia's leader describes the biggest European invasion since the end of World War Two as a "special military operation".
Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.
In sum, the United States, its NATO allies, and Ukraine could impose immediate and painful costs on any Russian invaders. And for many years thereafter, Russia could face reinforced NATO military power. If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces.