Commenting on an ongoing war is difficult, especially for someone not close to the front lines. This is why, as I noted in last year’s assessment, my preference is “to talk about trends, possibilities, and developments coming into view.” Wars pass through stages, as fortunes shift, and the challenges of supply and reinforcement change. Over time some possibilities become impossible, some quite likely, and new ones emerge. Of these the most unlikely, such as peace negotiations, can be worth discussing to understand why they are unlikely or what would need to change to make them likely. So my self-assessment question is not whether my predictions are right, because I made few that were firm, but whether much happened that would surprise a regular reader of these posts. So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia.
That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.
Russian offensive succeeds
Despite Ukraine’s gains against Russia, experts believe a frozen conflict or painful truce is most likely. By the end of July there was no point in pretending that all was going well. One problem is it leads to playing down the benefits the US has always got in its conventional operations from superior firepower. Faced with the collapse of his business model Prigozhin mutinied, challenging directly Putin’s whole rationale for the war by pointing out the lack of an extraordinary Ukrainian threat to the Donbas enclaves in February 2022, before marching to the Southern Command HQ at Rostov.
- To be sure, a lot happened in the intervening years that could have changed the direction of what followed.
- But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
- In his mind, the communist leadership tore Ukraine from its true home in the Russian empire.
- The result is a protracted struggle that gradually lessens in intensity as the Russians run short on ammunition and resupply to Ukraine eases.
- "My aim is to change Russia. I may not be president on 17 March but I should have the best result."
“The war has been so absolutely brutal that they’re fearful of what will happen in territories handed over to Russia,” he said. While the West could warn Kyiv that it would stop supplies of weapons or financial support if Ukraine were to insist on defying the US or Europe, “this kind of threat is not credible”, Slantchev told Al Jazeera. That, he said, is “because the Ukrainians know” that it is in Western interests “to not let them collapse”.
Biden says he'll back Ukraine as long as it takes. But some take aim at the price tag
Ukraine’s Commander in Chief General Valery Zaluzhnyi has stressed the importance of inflicting heavy casualties on Russia, “until the enemy gives up fighting against our country,” while acknowledging that its hard to know in the Russian case when this point would be reached. A lot was riding on Ukraine’s offensive, including the added value that might result from western equipment transfers and training programmes. As Russian tactics become more aggressive, the Ukrainian people are paying ever higher costs. If we see the average Ukrainian’s willingness to suffer and fight lagging, it should give us cause for concern. To this end, western governments have stepped up humanitarian and defensive aid to Ukraine, in order to ensure that Ukrainian support for the war endures.
Ultimately, it appears that this war will not end quickly, as it will take a considerable amount of time for either side to make the other give up. Either the Russian military’s transition to indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets succeeds in eroding Ukrainian resistance, or battlefield casualties and domestic economic woes succeed in defeating Russia’s will to fight. Neither outcome is likely in the coming weeks and months, meaning people around the world are left to watch the horrors of war unfold, and wait. Wars require the tacit approval and support of those on the home front. Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power. Vladimir Putin depends on oligarchs, the Russian mafia and the military for his survival.
Currently, western intelligence estimates Russia is taking 1,000 casualties a day. There remains https://euronewstop.co.uk/who-is-allies-with-ukraine.html that the Kremlin will seek a fresh mobilisation, and another worry is that Beijing may start covertly supplying Russia. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration. This means that the willingness of the general population to suffer in the face of high costs is of the utmost importance.
Having to rely on Donald Trump both winning the November US election (the next major landmark event) and then doing what he wants is not wholly comfortable. According to Politico , encouraged by the Biden administration, this is the shift in posture currently underway, bolstering air defences, strengthening positions in eastern Ukraine, and making it harder for Russian forces to attack from Belarus. The suggestion is that this is to prepare for eventual negotiations, although the main need is simply for Ukraine to show that it can play a long game. The worst outcome would be, “at the cost of enormous losses”, the liberation of all of Ukraine, which will “remain in ruins with a population that mostly hates us” and a “redemption” that would take more than a decade. He wanted to take (what were claimed to be) the former Russian parts back into Russia and turn the rest into a friendly buffer state. From this perspective Russia remains a long way from a sustainable victory.
- The Republican primary front runner has been announced by Kremlin propagandists as Moscow's favored White House resident-in-waiting, not just because of his railing against congressional support for Ukraine.
- The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.
- The money is coming through and Kyiv is still holding steady, battered and bruised but determined to resist Russian aggression.
- This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war.
- There was certainly more optimism surrounding the Ukrainian position at the start of the year than there was at the end.
- Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II.
Many experts I consulted, however, advised girding for a struggle that could last a lot longer, even if the war in its more acute form resolves sooner. There are no certain answers to my questions, just ones contingent on unknowable future circumstances. To put a twist on an old Yiddish expression, people predict, and war laughs. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. I wrote about this recently, noting that we're seeing air battles daily, but pilots are rarely involved.
He has won several presidential elections comfortably, but in recent years no serious opposition has been allowed. The Kremlin maintains that elections are fair and he is genuinely popular. Boris Nadezhdin told the BBC he was unlikely to win 17 March elections but Mr Putin would not last six more years. A would-be challenger to Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would end the war in Ukraine on day one of his presidency. Even though the end of the war is not yet in sight, he says he can envision a scenario for which a precedent exists.
- When this happens, countries often end up fighting wars of attrition that last until one side gives up.
- At some point, Ukraine will have to decide if there's a military solution to the conflict or if it has to look for another way out without conceding any kind of defeat, Barrons said.
- Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia.
- Many experts I consulted, however, advised girding for a struggle that could last a lot longer, even if the war in its more acute form resolves sooner.
- The world was united in shock when Russia invaded Ukraine, with prominent members of the international community calling for an end to the conflict.
But it has not defined what it means, in this context, for the war to be “over.” Must there be a formal peace treaty? Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine? Tying Ukrainian NATO membership to such conditions would give Putin another incentive never to meet them. Offering Article 5 protection to Ukrainian territory in this fashion would be akin to admitting a divided Germany to NATO after World War II and to America’s security pact with South Korea after the armistice that halted the Korean War without reunifying the Korean Peninsula.