What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. "The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two," said Volodymyr Zelensky. Russian troops made two attempts to storm the presidential compound, according to his adviser. On Tuesday, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, stopped the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Russia’s recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics. First, Putin has indicated that he questions Ukraine’s right to statehood, calling modern Ukraine an artificial construct of the Soviet Union.
- Creative solutions are also quickly needed to undermine the Russian blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports, facilitating the export of grain.
- Counter-intuitively, preparing for a possible war with Russia is the best approach to prevent it.
- That figure cannot be confirmed, but it followed a US estimate of some 100,000 Ukrainians killed or wounded by November.
- When announcing the military operation, Mr Putin warned other countries that interfering with the invasion would lead to "consequences you have never seen".
Russia’s main demand that Ukraine never be part of NATO and the organisation won’t expand further into Eastern Europe has been rejected. Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey. If law and order really began to break down, security forces could be authorised to use lethal force against looters; neighbourhood vigilante groups might spring up. “We have become so comfortable here in Britain that it’s hard to imagine young people fighting, and when I went to Afghanistan a decade ago, I didn’t think the youngsters of would be up to much,” he said. The logistics of training a “Citizen Army” are also formidable, according to one former Territorial Army (TA) soldier. “If you are talking about mass mobilisation to defend the homeland, that is hundreds of thousands of people,” he said.
Why is Russia invading Ukraine?
In addition, Russia could seek to extend the separatist-controlled area, possibly by seizing communication points or power plants that would make the region more viable as a separate quasi-state. They say that Ukraine - with Western support - has destroyed nearly 90% of the Russian army that invaded in February 2022, according to US intelligence sources. Republicans in Washington have been holding up new funds for Kyiv over demands for border control, leading to concerns over the reliability of American support. The Institute for the Study of War thinktank says the costs of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine are "higher than most people imagine", as US resolve - particularly among Republicans - possibly wavers over providing more military aid to Kyiv.
Various federal agencies, including the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security, have warned of possible cyberattacks on targets like big banks and power grid operators. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is a bad idea quite apart from the Kremlin’s threats against Ukraine, though US sanctions against German and other European companies would be a costly way of dealing with it. The prospect of a new Kremlin attack on Ukraine seems, finally, to have convinced the new German government to change course on the pipeline and acknowledge that it could not proceed in the face of new Russian aggression.
Elsewhere on the BBC
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that several missiles have hit infrastructure and border guards. Explosions have been heard by residents in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and other cities across the country. However, uncertainty seems to be prevailing in Ukraine as people are being urged to stay at home where possible. But https://euronewstop.co.uk/where-is-turkey-in-relation-to-ukraine.html has imposed martial law across the country, saying that Ukraine was "ready for everything".
- The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure".
- "As the chairman of the NATO military committee warned just last week, and as the Swedish government has done...taking preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing when needed are now not merely desirable but essential."
- It is a priority for CBC to create products that are accessible to all in Canada including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges.
- "They're targeting a change of decision-making, a change in policy in that direction, a change in public opinion."
- If Ukraine's circumstances became more dire, the United States or NATO allies might consider intervening with their own forces.
He said countries that were criticizing Russia were showing “utter indifference to the fate of the Donbas people,” just as Kyiv and its Western backers had. Many people in Kyiv have sought shelter in underground metro stations. Russia said it has destroyed more than 70 military targets in Ukraine. But later on Thursday President Zelensky said Ukraine had suffered losses and a lot of aircraft and armoured vehicles had been destroyed.
What happens if Russia invades Ukraine?
The majority of European countries turned to the tried and tested protective security umbrella of NATO, backed by American military capabilities. With or without a nuclear threat dimension, Russia’s neighbours already have valid reasons to fear the Russian predator. They feel that, if not stopped in and by Ukraine, Putin may entertain aggression against other territories.
Either way, if Europe's natural gas supply is pinched, that could cause energy prices — which have already been climbing — to rise even further. And even though the U.S. imports relatively little oil from Russia, oil prices are set by the global market, meaning local prices could rise anyway. Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe.
Putin has repeatedly warned that Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO are a red line for Russia. He also expressed concerns that some members of NATO are trying to set up a military training centre in Ukraine. This would give the country a military advantage in eastern Europe without Ukraine even joining the alliance. While NATO say they are “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes”, they have the “military power to undertake crisis management operations” if diplomatic efforts aren’t successful.
- Western intelligence estimates that Russia already has up to 100,000 troops positioned near to the border with Ukraine, along with tanks and artillery.
- Western governments and Ukrainian officials say Russian forces and Russian-armed proxies are already on the ground.
- The foreign minister of Ukraine also addressed the gathering, appealing to the international community to take concrete and swift action against Russia that matched the level of its threat.
- Peter Wilson is an adjunct international/defense researcher at RAND.
- Any full-scale invasion of Ukraine could be over in a matter of a few days.
- The Russian president has even shown his willingness to bring Belarus into the nuclear equation.